Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 18 at the 25

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Tennessee Titans 27

What Actually Happened

(8:24) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at TEN 33 for -8 yards (sack split by 98-J.Simmons and 96-D.Autry). FUMBLES (98-J.Simmons), RECOVERED by TEN-51-D.Long at TEN 38. 51-D.Long to TEN 46 for 8 yards (62-J.Thuney). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at TEN 33 for -8 yards (96-D.Autry). KC-15-P.Mahomes was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP

What Happened

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.29 EP
74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.18 EP

PUNT -0.29 EP

Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP