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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 42

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Tennessee Titans 27

What Actually Happened

(9:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 13-B.Pringle to TEN 17 for 25 yards (21-M.Farley; 24-E.Molden).

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.44 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model