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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Tennessee Titans
4th & 5 at the 48
Tennessee Titans 27 – Kansas City Chiefs 3
What Actually Happened
(13:37) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to KC 3, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
+0.26 EP
Model's Pick
-
47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.06 EP
- 53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -2.24 EP
KICK
-1.02 EP
- 27% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
- 73% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT
+0.23 EP
What Happened
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth +0.23 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
