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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 24

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Tennessee Titans 27

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 7-H.Butker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.89 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model