4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 35

Houston Texans 2 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 7-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.96 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -2.10 EP
KICK +0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model