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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 46

Houston Texans 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to ARI 2, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-32-G.Wallow.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.81 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 46, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.12 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model