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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Houston Texans
4th & 5 at the 51
Houston Texans 5 – Arizona Cardinals 31
What Actually Happened
(3:01) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 89-D.Amendola.
The Three Options
GO
-0.25 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.23 EP
- 60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 51, worth -1.89 EP
KICK
-0.63 EP
- 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
- 68% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT
-0.47 EP
- Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
