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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 73

Houston Texans 5 – Arizona Cardinals 31

What Actually Happened

(9:14) 11-C.Johnston punts 69 yards to ARI 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-51-K.Grugier-Hill.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 73, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 31, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model