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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Houston Texans
4th & 5 at the 37
Houston Texans 5 – Arizona Cardinals 24
What Actually Happened
(14:20) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 13-B.Cooks.
The Three Options
GO
+0.26 EP
What Happened
-
38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.80 EP
- 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.91 EP
KICK
+0.38 EP
Model's Pick
- 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
- 34% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT
-0.12 EP
- Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
