Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 14 at the 84

Arizona Cardinals 24 – Houston Texans 5

(:49) 14-A.Lee punts 43 yards to HOU 41, Center-46-A.Brewer. 25-D.King to ARI 42 for 17 yards (84-D.Harris, 33-A.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.44 EP
64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 84, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model