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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 44

Houston Texans 5 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.58 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model