Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 19 at the 68

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Houston Texans 0

(12:51) 14-A.Lee punts 55 yards to HOU 13, Center-46-A.Brewer. 25-D.King to HOU 27 for 14 yards (31-C.Banjo).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.29 EP
71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model