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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 18

Detroit Lions 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 4-A.Seibert 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.23 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 18, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 28, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model