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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 29

Los Angeles Rams 25 – Detroit Lions 19

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 8-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +1.32 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 29, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 39, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model