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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 18

Detroit Lions 16 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(6:19) (No Huddle) 32-D.Swift up the middle to LA 18 for no gain (41-K.Young; 26-T.Burgess).

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.77 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 18, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 28, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model