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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 65

Detroit Lions 16 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(10:02) (Punt formation) 38-C.Moore left end pushed ob at LA 37 for 28 yards (18-B.Skowronek).

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.75 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 65, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.59 EP