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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 29

Detroit Lions 10 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 4-A.Seibert 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.03 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 29, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model