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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 11

Denver Broncos 7 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 5-T.Bridgewater up the middle to CLE 10 for 1 yard (97-M.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +3.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.18 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model