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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 72

Denver Broncos 7 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(14:38) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to CLE 22, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-27-N.Hairston.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 72, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 30, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model