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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 6

Cleveland Browns 10 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(:58) (Shotgun) 5-C.Keenum scrambles up the middle to DEN 1 for 5 yards (29-B.Callahan; 40-J.Strnad).

The Three Options

GO +3.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.15 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 6, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model