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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 23

Cleveland Browns 10 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 3-C.McLaughlin 41 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-S.Harris), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.13 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 23, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 33, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model