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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 80

Denver Broncos 0 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 6-S.Martin punts 59 yards to CLE 21, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 25-D.Felton to CLE 31 for 10 yards (16-T.Cleveland).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.03 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 80, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.21 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 37, worth -2.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP