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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 53

Cleveland Browns 10 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 7-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to DEN 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 13 for 3 yards (88-H.Bryant; 51-Ma.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.49 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 53, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -2.17 EP
  • 11% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 89% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model