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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 27

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(14:08) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.93 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT +0.62 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model