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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 67

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 10-K.Huber punts 60 yards to BAL 7, Center-46-C.Harris. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 23 for 16 yards (55-L.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.44 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 67, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 25, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model