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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 71

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to CIN 22, Center-46-N.Moore. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 29 for 7 yards (16-T.Wallace).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.19 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 29, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model