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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 51

Cincinnati Bengals 41 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(:28) 34-S.Perine left end to CIN 49 for no gain (54-T.Bowser; 92-J.Madubuike).

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +0.92 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 51, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model