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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 20 at the 78

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to CIN 30, Center-46-N.Moore. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 43 for 13 yards (57-K.Welch; 16-T.Wallace).

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.61 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 78, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 35, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model