4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 44

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 41

What Actually Happened

(2:18) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass incomplete short middle to 84-J.Oliver [92-B.Hill].

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.04 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 44, worth -1.46 EP
KICK -0.04 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model