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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 76

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 41

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to CIN 30, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model