Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 62

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

(11:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short left to 5-M.Brown (59-A.Davis-Gaither).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP

What Happened

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.84 EP
59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model