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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 71

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(13:30) (Shotgun) 63-T.Colon reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson left end to BAL 35 for 6 yards (57-G.Pratt).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.84 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 29, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model