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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 65

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to CIN 15, Center-46-N.Moore. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 15 for no gain (41-A.Levine).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.17 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 23, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model