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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 39

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.86 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 39, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -3.25 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model