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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 40

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 4-S.Koch punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.38 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.76 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model