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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 66

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 10-K.Huber punts 58 yards to BAL 8, Center-46-C.Harris. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 29 for 21 yards (37-R.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 24, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP