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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 38

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(2:37) 8-B.Pinion punts 24 yards to CHI 14, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by TB-46-C.Tinker.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.61 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 38, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.94 EP