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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Chicago Bears
4th & 8 at the 44
Chicago Bears 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7
What Actually Happened
(9:54) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to TB 16, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.59 EP
-
34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.46 EP
- 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.66 EP
KICK
-1.06 EP
- 43% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
- 57% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT
-0.52 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
