Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
Chicago Bears
4th & 16 at the 44
Chicago Bears 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38
What Actually Happened
(8:07) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.42 EP
-
24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.29 EP
- 76% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.93 EP
KICK
-0.55 EP
- 43% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
- 57% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT
-0.26 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
