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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 11

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(:40) 7-L.Fournette up the middle to CHI 8 for 3 yards (22-K.Vildor; 4-E.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +3.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.23 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -0.41 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model