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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Chicago Bears
4th & 4 at the 51
Chicago Bears 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28
What Actually Happened
(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 48 for -1 yards (90-J.Pierre-Paul).
The Three Options
GO
-0.23 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.55 EP
- 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.60 EP
KICK
-1.46 EP
- 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
- 74% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT
-0.72 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.72 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
