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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 75

Chicago Bears 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to TB 25, Center-48-P.Scales. 1-J.Darden pushed ob at CHI 32 for 43 yards (16-P.O'Donnell).

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 32, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model