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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 67

Chicago Bears 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to TB 29, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.38 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP