Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 77

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

(6:21) 12-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to MIA 27, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 77, worth -4.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model