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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 18

Atlanta Falcons 27 – Miami Dolphins 28

What Actually Happened

(:03) 7-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +2.18 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 18, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 28, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model