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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 80

Miami Dolphins 14 – Atlanta Falcons 20

What Actually Happened

(:02) 5-M.Palardy punts 58 yards to ATL 22, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-22-E.Campbell.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.93 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 80, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 37, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP