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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 32

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(2:45) 2-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.94 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP