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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 56

Denver Broncos 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 34

What Actually Happened

(:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right intended for 81-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Abram at LV 45. 24-J.Abram to DEN 49 for 6 yards (33-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +0.89 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 56, worth -0.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model