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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 51

Las Vegas Raiders 34 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 6-A.Cole punts 37 yards to DEN 14, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.18 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 51, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model