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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 24

Denver Broncos 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 31

What Actually Happened

(11:42) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left intended for 9-K.Hinton INTERCEPTED by 39-N.Hobbs at LV 13. 39-N.Hobbs to LV 13 for no gain (9-K.Hinton). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 9-K.Hinton to LV 12 for 12 yards (39-N.Hobbs).

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.78 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 34, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model